Japan’s new 2035 climate target is not consistent with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement.
2025/02/19
On February 18th, 2025, the Japanese government approved the “Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures,” the “7th Strategic Energy Plan,” and the “GX2040 Vision,” which set the direction for Japan's global warming countermeasures, and submits the 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction target to the UN as Japan's new national climate target, known as Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
WWF-Japan is deeply disappointed and protests that the Japanese government has not shown its ambition at all in its newly set 2035 target of GHG emission reduction and the energy mix in 2040, which fall short of the level needed to achieve the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. At COP30, which marks the first opportunity to revise the NDCs under the Paris Agreement, setting ambitious NDCs collectively will have a great influence on the momentum toward decarbonization for the next decade and the achievement of the 1.5°C target. For Japan, as a developed country with high emissions, the level of its ambition should lead the world by setting a high target, which is critical to making the world’s decarbonization goals within the reach. To achieve this, the following three points need to be improved.
(1) The Japanese government should set a 2035 GHG emission reduction target of at least a 66% reduction compared to 2013 level.
The government has set the 2035 GHG emission reduction target by 60% compared to 2013 level, assuming a linear reduction from the existing 2030 emission reduction target to achieve net zero by 2050. However, this level is insufficient.
The IPCC indicates that to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5°C, GHG emissions need to be reduced globally by 60% by 2035 compared to 2019. When converted to Japan's GHG emission base year of 2013, this is equivalent to a 66% reduction. This level of reduction was also confirmed in the first Global Stocktake outcomes agreed upon at COP28 in 2023. However, as a developed country with both the responsibility and capacity to reduce emissions, Japan needs to exceed this level significantly. Additionally, with the current 60% reduction target, Japan would emit more greenhouse gases compared to a 66% reduction, leading to higher cumulative emissions by 2050. Since the rise in atmospheric temperature is proportional to the concentration of greenhouse gases, it is essential to minimize cumulative emissions as much as possible to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.
Therefore, Japan should set a 2035 GHG emission reduction target of at least 66% reduction compared to 2013. Based on WWF-Japan's analysis, 68% reduction by 2035 compared to 2013 is achievable. Japan is expected to lead the global momentum toward decarbonization by setting such an ambitious target.
(2) The Japanese government should triple the domestic renewable energy capacity and phase out coal-fired power plants by 2030.
Energy-related CO2 emissions account for about 85% of total greenhouse gas emissions in Japan, so it is unavoidable to transform the energy system when addressing global warming. The "7th Strategic Energy Plan" outlines a power generation mix for 2040, with renewable energy making up 40-50%, thermal power 30-40%, and nuclear energy 20%. However, this ratio does not demonstrate sufficient decarbonization of the power sector.
The international community expects a significant expansion of renewable energy and a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Japan. In the first Global Stocktake outcomes, it was agreed that global renewable energy capacity should be tripled by 2030, and transitioning away from fossil fuels should be accelerated. Furthermore, coal-fired power plants, which emit about twice as much greenhouse gas as gas-fired power plants, are under intense international pressure. At the 2024 G7 Puglia Summit, the G7 leaders agreed to phase out coal-fired power plants during the first half of 2030s for the first time. Additionally, while LNG could be recognized as having a limited role during the transition period, a strategic approach is required to determine how its use will be phased out.
In addition, existing technologies regarding renewable energy and energy efficiency provide a reasonable means of reducing emissions in line with the 1.5°C target. According to the IPCC, halving GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels can be achieved with mitigation options costing less than USD100 per t-CO2e, and with more than half of this potential costing less than USD20 per t-CO2e, which can be delivered through existing technologies such as solar power, wind energy, and energy efficiency.
In light of these considerations, Japan should significantly advance the deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency rather than relying on nuclear energy, which has not been thoroughly discussed at the national level, or zero-emission thermal power, which lacks large-scale commercialization prospects. WWF-Japan's analysis shows that accelerating the deployment of solar power and wind energy can triple domestic renewable energy capacity by 2030. Additionally, it has been demonstrated in WWF-Japan's energy scenario that phasing out coal-fired power plants by 2030, combined with the expansion of energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment and the increased operating rates of existing gas-fired power plants, will not cause any issues with electricity supply. Through these efforts, it is possible to achieve a renewable energy share of 90% in the power generation mix by 2040 for all energy supply needs, including heat by 2050.
(3) The Japanese government should undergo an transparent and fair discussion process that takes into account various domestic and international insights.
In the recent joint advisory committee of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) on global warming countermeasures, there was some progress in the composition of the committee members, but the way the discussions were conducted had issues. For instance, the 2035 target drafted by the secretariat was suddenly presented right after the hearing process from relevant organizations without any advance notice. Moreover, the draft proposal shared the same numerical targets as those suggested by the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) in its recommendations shown in October 2024. After several committee members raised strong concern regarding the process, some improvements were made , as more diverse model analyses by independent research institutes were considered in a more comprehensive manner, allowing for a more thorough discussion. However, in the Advisory Committees related to the Strategic Energy Plan, many of the committee members represented energy-intensive industries, while there were few representatives from other energy demand sectors, independent research institutes, or civil society, which resulted in the lack of comprehensive discussion.
Given that global warming impacts all actors in society, an inclusive and transparent process that considers analyses and recommendations from various domestic and international organizations should have been adopted from the outset.
Regarding the targets, for example, the Japan Climate Initiative (JCI), a network of non-state actors actively engaged in climate actions, has called for a reduction of at least 66% compared to 2013 levels by 2035. Additionally, the Japan Climate Leaders' Partnership (JCLP), composed of companies aiming to realize a sustainable decarbonized society, has proposed a 75% reduction compared to 2013 levels as the 2035 target. Furthermore, many independent think tanks, both domestic and international, such as the Renewable Energy Institute, Climate Integrate, Climate Action Tracker and Climate Analytics, have done model analyses related to the emission reduction targets.
Similarly, regarding the power generation mix, JCI has called for maximizing the introduction of renewable energy and an early phase-out of fossil fuels. Additionally, JCLP has proposed that the share of renewable energy in the 2035 power generation mix should be over 60%. Furthermore, the demand-side international groups of companies operating in Japan, such as RE100, CEBA, and SEMI, have also urged the Japanese government to set higher targets and robust policies to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.
Only by considering these multifaceted analyses and rich proposals can we envision a desirable future for Japan. It is necessary to conduct discussions on climate actions in a way that reflects the diversity of societal actors.
In 2024, the global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C for a single year, and regardless of political circumstances, the degradation of nature, including global warming, is becoming increasingly severe. In this context, accelerating efforts toward decarbonization is essential not only for strengthening industrial competitiveness but also for ensuring a secure and stable life for citizens. Through the improvements mentioned above, WWF-Japan strongly urges the setting of ambitious targets and the strengthening of measures.
